The Indian Steel Majors: Measuring Transition

Tracking Technology Transition in the Indian Steel Sector: An Integrated Report

To attract transition and concessional financing, Indian steel companies will need to produce credible transition plans. This report brings together a series of company-focused assessments on the transition performance of the Indian steel majors.

While steel production is vital for India’s development goals, limited access to raw materials, natural gas, and steel scrap makes it difficult to scale without deploying carbon-intensive technologies. This strategy poses a threat to company CO₂ targets and could impact future profitability.

In this report, we analyse the state and outlook of the private Indian Steel Majors – JSW Steel, Tata Steel, JSPL, and AMNS – as they aim to grow market share in India while reducing CO₂ intensity.

Key insights from the report include:

• The Indian steel majors have ambitious long-term targets – JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and JSPL all aim for net zero carbon at or before 2050. Only AMNS has not stated a target year and is assumed to align with the sector’s 2070 net zero target.
• Room for policy to be more ambitious – After accounting for earlier target years, the weighted average net zero year for the sector is 2060, suggesting there is room for policy to be more ambitious.
• Capacity plans risk climate goals – The capacity growth plans of the Indian steel majors risk the achievement of their own climate goals and those of the Indian steel sector. If all announced blast furnace projects go ahead, and a relined once, this locks in 11-12 GtCO₂ to 2070, which would use up the 10-11 GtCO₂ budget allocated from the sector’s 2070 net zero ambition.
• Future projects carry high risk of carbon lock-in – Of an estimated US$172bn of future project capital, 70% falls into the high-risk category for carbon lock-in.
• The EU CBAM poses a threat to exports – Without stronger near-term measures, Indian steel companies could face tariffs rates from the CBAM of over 150 US$/tcs by 2030, rising to around 300 US$/tcs in 2034 when allowances phase out.
• The Indian steel majors are developing a wide range of abatement technologies – Projects securing captive supply of renewable energy (RE), pilot scale electrolysers for green H₂, and deployments of Direct Reduction (DR) capacity are taking place.